BTC - Keep calm and HODL onsteemCreated with Sketch.

in bitcoin •  8 months ago 

So far, nothing is out of the ordinary for Bitcoin

People have been getting a little fearful with the most recent pullback, which is understandable.

We saw prices move up almost $3k in a single day, only to give the vast majority of that move back over the following weeks.

Now, I am seeing some calling for $3k, $2k, and miners capitulating etc etc etc. Lots of fear uncertainty and doubt (FUD).

But, if we zoom out a bit, there is nothing going on right now that isn't out of the ordinary for bitcoin's 4 year price cycles.

What do I mean by that?

Well, lets take a look!

Roughly every 4 years, bitcoin has seen a similar pattern.

A pattern that can be broken down into 5 stages.

It dips below a 2 year moving average and chops around a bit (accumulation), eventually bursts back above it and consolidates for a period of time (breakout), goes on a sustained and gradual move higher (progressive bull), followed by an aggressive move higher (aggressive bull), which eventually leads to a blow off top (overbought).

We have seen that 5 stage pattern play out 2 previous times already, and right now things are set up to see it play out again a 3rd time.

Check it out:


As you can see, things are right on schedule.

We had a dip below that 2 year MA (accumulation time), and then a break back above the 2 year MA followed by sideways consolidation (breakout, where we are right now).

After this phase is complete we would expect to see a progressive bull market start to build, followed by an aggressive bull market, eventually leading to a blow off top.

The reason these cycles tend to play out like this is likely mostly due to the block reward halvings, as well as typical market cycles.

Nothing to worry about, yet

As long as bitcoin stays within these colored ranges, there is nothing to worry about.

It's business as usual.

What would cause us to worry?

Well, if bitcoin were to dip below that 2 year MA, it would be the first time that has ever happened after breaking above back above it.

That would be something we would not want to see.

Other than that, keep calm and HODL on!

Stay informed my friends.


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I wasn't expecting this downward movement at this time

Posted using Partiko iOS

Yea, I would be surprised if we go much lower.

Thanks for sharing the info, this is very informative :-)

The fact that Bitcoin's been sitting right on the line of the 2-year MA is concerning. That said, the pattern here is indisputable. There's good reason to HODL, especially with Halving 2020 on the way, and miners capitulating right now.

Keep calm, and Hodl on!

Yep, everything still looks fine, so far. If we get a drop to $6k or so, it probably won't look so fine anymore. In my mind $6k is the absolute lowest it can go before I would get concerned and consider selling. If it goes below there, the chart flips.