Will Bitcoin peak at less than $200k during this cycle or north of $250k?

in hive-148441 •  last month 

image.png

(Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/hKOSCZyf-BTC-Cycle-break-down-WHY-YOU-SHOULD-HODL/_

Where it stops, nobody knows, or do they?

Everyone loves to talk about peak prices for this cycle, so I thought I would throw my hat in the ring as well.

I've mentioned $100k and $200k a few times in previous posts and those are numbers I am still looking at now.

I think it's almost a forgone conclusion that bitcoin goes over $100k this year, and possibly over $200k as well.

I come up with these guesses based on previous halving patterns mostly and the clearest way to see them is looking at a chart of prior tops.

Something like this:

image.png

(Source: https://twitter.com/case4bitcoin/status/1365046989465939968/photo/1)

The price just keeps going higher, but if you look at the peaks there is somewhat of a pattern there.

The data following past peaks:

  • 62x
  • 36x
  • 17x
  • ???

While not perfect there is a trend here.

The second peak was 42% lower than the prior one, while the third peak was 53% lower than the second. If we see a similar jump this time around, maybe we see a peak about 65% lower than the prior one.

If we take that 65% lower metric from 17x, we would be looking at about 6x the prior high.

With the prior high around $20k, that would imply the high for the current cycle to be around $120k.

A bit lower than most people think and lower than both past halving patterns project, but something that could be pretty likely if this trend of diminishing returns continues.

What price are you looking at for the peak, and why?

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There you hit it on the head. Everyone talks, still it's difficult to know tomorrow.
Good prediction @jondoe

What's your prediction for the highs this year?

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I think 8 times.

So 8x would be roughly $160k peak, right?

No, up to $240k

Were you saying 8x the previous high?